You’re only getting half the story – how can you possibly think you have enough information to make a judgement

There’s a very sad story on CNN right now.  Kid goes into the hospital to get her tonsils out, something goes wrong, kid is pronounced brain-dead.

http://www.cnn.com/2013/12/17/health/california-girl-brain-dead/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

The thing that gets to me is all the people jumping in with statements like “those RN’s really screwed up” and throwing around the word “Malpractice”.

Read the article.  Take a moment, I’ve got time.  I’ll be right here.  *hums*  *looks at watch*  *rolls eyes*

Oh, you’re back (or, you’re a slacker who didn’t read the article)

What’s the one thing that really called out to me?  The fact that the ONLY people talking are the very distraught and upset parents.  They talk about their experience, and what they saw and how they interpreted it as FACT. They talk about the Nurses not trying hard enough. They talk about the doctors not doing EVERYTHING they could for the kid. 

And due to patient privacy laws, and the fact that the parents won’t let the hospital talk about the procedure, the world is only getting one side of the story. And the person writing the article chooses to focus on the family’s sound bites instead of telling everyone to take the story with a grain of salt because the hospital can’t talk.

Read further into the story.  The kid had some SERIOUS problems.  Overweight. Sleep Apnea. Trouble Concentrating. Constant Urination. There is SO MUCH MORE going on in this story. And once again, the way that it is published, as a sensationalist story, where the parents think the hospital screwed up OMG OMG OMG! isn’t helping. Now the public is weighing in, ad nauseum, about how much the nurses suck, and the doctors should be sued, and the hospital “obviously failed” and how procedures weren’t followed.

Seriously people, stop it.

Reporting high numbers – Spin changes things

I was linked to this article by an acquaintance:

http://www.digitaltrends.com/opinion/obamacare-healthcare-gov-website-cost/

This article basically says that we’re wasting $634M on the healthcare exchanges, because the contract was originally supposed to be for $93M, and we’re just throwing money away.  All of the data in this article is pulled from the USASpending website: 

http://usaspending.gov/explore?tab=By+Prime+Awardee&pageno=3&fiscal_year=all&idvpiid=HHSM500200700015I&typeofview=detailsummary

So, as I am wont to do, I dug into the details a bit more.  

There are approximately 30 states using the federal exchanges, and therefore 30 states which need to have an entire system created from the ground up.  Because we can’t know which states need more work and which states need less, we’re just going to have to divide by 30.    $634M/30 states = $22M per state.  

The next thing we look at is how long the contract has been active.  It was awarded in 2010 when the ACA was passed into law.  It was bid out, just like any government contract.  So that’s 3 years since the contract was awarded.  $22M/3 = $7M a year, per state.

There was a large upgrade of servers, which cost about $20M (remember, 30 states).  The rest of the money went to employing people to do the code, and the administration of those functions.  Someone has to do payroll, make sure that the computers work, make sure that the power is on.  Someone has to pay rent on the buildings where the computer equipment is housed, and pay the electricity bill.  

When compared to the $1.5 B that we spend on ONE defense contract for Lockheed Martin, suddenly that $221M looks a lot smaller.

It’s all about the context people.

Not only is the dollar amount less when put into context, but there a large issue that the article being quoted got wrong.

The article made a bid deal out of this $634M contract for a product that doesn’t work.  And yes, if I had to pay $600M for a product that doesn’t work, I would be pissed.  Except for the fact that the exchange website does work.  It got overwhelmed on day 1, but in my experience, any time a website has more visitors than expected, all trying to log on at the same time, it does down.  404 error big time.  

Wait a few days, go back when everyone and their brother aren’t trying to jump on the site at the same time.  Voila! Suddenly, everything works the way it’s supposed to.

Again, it’s all about context.  It’s about taking information out of a single point in time, and looking at the big picture.  It’s not about trying to scare or disappoint or anger a subset of people who want justification for that fright or disappointment or anger.  Reporting *should* be about facts in context, regardless of what you want the data points to say.

Open-minded seems to mean different things to different people

Why is it that the folks who are the least open-minded about hearing other people are the ones who constantly accuse other people of being closed-minded?

Why is it that when faced with facts, some people say “That isn’t what I believe, so that can’t be right”?

 

You don’t Know!!!!!!!

I was having a well-intentioned conversation with an acquaintance today regarding Obamacare and the Government Shut Down.  Said acquaintance was making comments like “We need more time to try and figure out how something works that we don’t want”.  Later, said acquaintance made a comment “You have never been self employed or owned a business. You have never had to navigate through our government or run a business in the midst of the taxes, fees, and costs that are being piled on top of all the other costs of doing business.” and Finally “Your generation is going to be in quite a mess in about 10 to 20 years. You will look back on these times and wonder what were we thinking.”

First off – please don’t imply that because you want something, I also want the same thing.  The fact that this is even an issue shows that there isn’t a single “we” that has an overriding opinion about ANYTHING in the US.  Well, other than the fact that Congress doesn’t seem to be doing its job right now, but that’s an entirely different post.

Second off – please don’t assume what I have and have not done in my life.  And that because of my supposed ignorance of that experience, I don’t have any idea what I’m talking about.  Because that makes you look really ignorant.  

Third off – the fact that this individual seems to have the power to see into the future absolutely amazes me.  Of course, if that were the case, they would have moved out of the US to avoid Government Sponsored Healthcare.  Maybe someplace like Germany or Sweden or Canada or Cuba or… oh… wait.  Damn.

Thanks!

I would like to thank the Republicans in the House of Representatives for making such a big deal out of Obamacare and using it as the reason for the Government Shutdown which started yesterday.

Because this information is being prominently carried by almost EVERY single news station, it has called attention to the fact that the exchanges are currently open, and that people can and should sign up prior to the January 1 requirement date.  Since this information is so virally available, there will most likely not be a last-minute surge of folks headed to the exchanges, in turn overwhelming the system.  Additionally, the fact that there are currently glitches will be ironed out so that those people who DO go in last minute won’t overwhelm the system either.

Secondly, due to the overwhelming notification of the active state of the exchanges, there is more than enough time for people to be properly informed about the true costs to themselves and their families.  The exchanges will have enough time to communicate facts, clearing up misconceptions and misunderstandings about the actual cost.  The public now has MONTHS to be informed, or to get informed, or to be advised regarding anything that they don’t understand.  This will decrease the panic that people feel if people were left in ignorance until the last minute.

Although this wasn’t the intent, I’m sure the Republican party is proud of the way that they’ve come together to help inform the public about this program.

If I didn’t do my job correctly, I’d get fired

If I showed up tomorrow to work, and I told my boss that I didn’t have the budget that I’ve known was due today, they would fire me.  They might keep me on for long enough to get the background data out of my head, but after that, I would be fired.

I wouldn’t receive a paycheck, my health insurance would be cancelled, my 401(k) wouldn’t get vested, etc.

But due to a Constitutional Amendment, Congress is not only going to be paid during the shutdown, but they’ll all keep their jobs until at least the next election.  Why can’t we have a recall vote in the case of a shutdown?  Basically say “you people failed.  You won’t get paid until this gets fixed, and then you’re out of a job.  You cannot be Congresspeople, and you cannot run for office again. (for X time period).

Whatever side of the political spectrum these people are on, they have failed to do their job.  The Republicans are basically holding the government hostage with the 43rd attempt at repealing legislation that has been passed and that the Supreme Court has said is legal.  The Democrats refuse to cut spending for their pet projects, and refuse to look at legitimate reforms to prevent lower spending.

And no one seems to be looking out for the vast majority of the population of the country.  It’s only those people (I’m looking at you Senator Cruz) who scream the loudest who seem to be heard, rather than the overall voice of the citizens.

Numbers and Data – why it doesn’t matter that the NSA is “spying” on Facebook

There are approximately 1 billion active users of Facebook in any given month.  That is a WHOLE lot of people.  The staggering number of people posting to FB at any given point in time is insane.  Let’s look at some numbers here.  Say that the average person posts 5 times a day to Facebook.  So that’s 5 billion posts a day.  And there are 30 days in the month.  So now we’re at 150 billion posts a month.  Yes, Billion.  With a “B”.

And sure, there are stupid posts like “OMG, the cat peed on the towels again” and “Look what I’m having for lunch”.  There are memes, there are viral youtube videos, there are recipes and craft ideas and people calling out politicians.

Now say there are 5 comments per post.  Again, an average.  I’ve had posts with 60 comments, the majority of them have 1-2.  So now we’re at 750 billion new entries into Facebook.  This doesn’t include any of the groups.

To recap we’ve got 150 billion posts + 750 billion comments.  900 BILLION pieces of data in a given month.  And that’s Just Facebook.  That doesn’t include texting and emails and google searches and instagram and tumbler and wordpress and all the various blogging sites.  900 Billion pieces of data.

The chances of the NSA finding anything remotely useful, unless the supposed “criminals” are blatantly stating exactly what crimes they plan to commit, is less likely than the average person’s chances of winning the lottery.  Or dying in a plane crash. In terms of sheer numbers, it’s negligible.

Arguments will come up about how the NSA has unlimited funds, or how the government “machine” has the best computers or whatever.  And while that may be true, the sheer number of databytes that the government has to sift through is more than enormous.  Throw in some key words, or some phrasing that is known and you’re lowering the possibility of a hit.  But it’s still not a significant number.  For all those people who are so concerned about their privacy, you have to suspend any belief about the government functioning as a well-oiled machine.  You also have to assume that the government cares about the average person.  Which, if you listen to any debates about health care or taxes, the government does not.

You can’t have it both ways.  Either the government cares enough about each individual citizen that their daily lunch picture is vitally important to the security of the country, or they don’t care at all, in which case any arguments about why healthcare and taxes suck is moot.

There is a more fascinating link, which is how your friends and other social networks are built, and that’s actually really spiffy.  Although again, the data being collected probably doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of things.

Doing my math

All the news outlets that I’m reading today are publishing stories with fear-inducing titles “Obamacare worries?” or “TEST OF WILLS: ObamaCare battle in Congress, gov’t on shutdown clock” or “THE COMING DARKNESS: Is a government shutdown likely?”

It hurts my head.  Maybe I need to go see my Obamacare doctor.  Oh wait!  The program hasn’t started yet.

I ran my own numbers.  For myself and my kids, I was paying $684.20 per month.  A portion of that was provided by my employer.  With the Obamacare exchanges, for a comparable program, I would be paying $505 per month.  That’s $179.20 savings in my pocket every single month.  My insurance costs would go DOWN by $2,150 PER YEAR.  And that wasn’t even with the Government subsidy that I am qualified for due to my income.

I figured, it’s a fluke.  This can’t be right.  So now I’m going to ask around.  See what my friends and family are paying for insurance.  Do some math.  Find out the actual costs, and how they actually affect me.  I’ll come back and update.

What happens when factual reporting causes an unnecessary stir.

I read a news article the other day – “ObamaCare Employer Mandate: A List Of Cuts To Work Hours, Jobs” and I’ll provide a handy-dandy link to the article.

http://news.investors.com/politics-obamacare/092513-669013-obamacare-employer-mandate-a-list-of-cuts-to-work-hours-jobs.htm

In the article, the website talked about how they were providing a download so that people could compile the data in Excel, and then do their own research.  To read the title, it does seem at the beginning like the concept of Obamacare is creating a huge rush of employers to stop offering their employees insurance.  So I decided to do a little excel work, and a whole lot of research, and this is what I came up with.

The first statistic I looked at was the TOTAL number of employers on the list (313) and the total number of employers in the US, as provided by the census bureau.  When looking at these totals, this list of what looks like a large amount of employers (to me, cause I’ve only had so many jobs in my life) is actually .001% of the total employers in the US.

The next statistic I looked at was the total number of jobs affected.  Now, I had to do a little footwork here, because not all of the jobs on the list had how many employees would be affected.  I took an average of those employers who did list affected employees, and I used that average for all of the “blank” employers.  Sure, some of them will be higher, but some of them will be lower.  And I left in the extremely high numbers that were listed, so this average is probably on the high side.

That being said, If all of the employers listed on the website stopped providing insurance for the average number of employees, that would be approximately 80,000 people who would have hours cut short, and who would have to get their insurance through an exchange.  This is more than some small cities, and so it looks like a REALLY BIG number. So we go back to the Census Bureau.  There are 144 million jobs in the US at any given time. (June Jobs Report) This means that the total percentage of jobs that are being made part-time or less due to Obamacare is .0007%

Now I get that to the guy who is working at Dave and Buster’s or the University of Alabama or Kern County in California, or the San Diego Community College District who now has to go out to the exchanges and get insurance will probably be bummed that their hours were cut.  But when I look at the numbers, all I can think is that .0007% is statistically insignificant.  Additionally, the changes only affect certain part-time employees.

Next I looked at the distribution between “Red” and “Blue” states and “Private ” and “Public” companies.  26% of those companies lowering employee hours were private companies, and 74% were public companies.   Of the private companies, 57% were from “blue” states and 43% were from red states, for a total of 11,791 employee and 8,747 employees respectively. Of the public companies, 59% were blue states an d 41% were red states., for a total of 35,614 and 24,275 employees.  The definition of “red” and “blue” came from the statistics and voting trend for the most recent presidential election. When I first did the calculations, I actually used the 2008 voting statistics, and a lot more of the states were red, but I wanted the data to be accurate.

This information covered 313 employers in 38 different states.  I’m sure that there are more employers, as much as I’m sure that there are employers who are doing other things to get out from under the costs associated with health care. However, I disagree with a “news” report that presents accurate data in a vacuum, creating concern and causing people to make snap decisions without all of the relevant information.  I can see politicians or even the more ignorant of my own contemporaries pointing to something like this and saying “OMG! Obamacare is causing widespread panic” or “the affects of Obamacare are so far-reaching”.

It comes down to this: .0007% is neither widespread or far-reaching.

Friendship musings

Life has a way of reminding me that it can still kick my ass whenever it wants to.  I’ll be riding along, doing all the things that I do, and suddenly a wrench gets thrown in and everything gets extremely cranky for a while.

I’ve always had a problem with personal interaction.  I can make “friends” easily, but once we get to the “friendship” part I’m really bad at keeping that going.  My sister has people she’s been friends with for decades.  I have people I’ve KNOWN for Decades, but really only one or two that I consider close friends, and of those people, the proximity I have to them on a regular basis is spotty at best.

I understand that a great portion of this inability to maintain friendships is my own fault.  I am not a patient person, and I get frustrated easily with what I perceive to be other people’s stupid mistakes.  I’m also reasonably bright (and so so modest) and once I’m shown the logic or reason behind whatever’s going on, I get over it really quickly.  This leads to a phenomenon where I get upset at people’s idiocy really quickly, and then I tell them about that, and then I’m over it.

This method of maintaining friendships is NOT conducive to keeping people around for a long time.  Because MOST people take a while to get offended, but then stay offended (or upset, or hurt, or whatever other emotional response is included her) for much longer than I do.

Another part of the problem is the people I choose to make friends with.  For whatever reason, I don’t seem to usually be attracted to friendships with folks who are emotionally stable, or who have their shit together.  I’m a drama magnet.  I don’t do it on purpose, but for whatever reason, I have noticed a tendency in myself to hang out with people who are damaged.   Now, I’m not saying I’m not damaged.  It might be that like attracts like.  Or that I see a little bit of myself in them.  Or that I’m just so damn desperate for friendship that I spend time with people in what I think of as a friendship, but really it’s… not.  Pseudo-friendship.

Finally, I see enough of the desire to have the “movie perfect” relationships in my life.  Where everyone gets along, and where friends live up to the ideas I have in my head of what friendship is.  My own selfishness gets in the way of that a lot.  I want those perfect friendships sometimes, but other times I want to do my own thing, and I don’t want to be involved with other people and their weird-ass drama.  Or I just don’t want to be friendly with people who aren’t acting the way I think they should be acting.

Unfortunately, recognizing my failings only makes them that much more obvious when I start to look at the friendships that are going well at the time.  And leads to the question, “Why do I not make an effort to avoid those types of unhealthy relationships?”  or better yet “Why am I not doing something to change the way that I interact with people in order to avoid those situations where things come to a fiery explosion because of the way that they’re handled?”

For the people that I truly care about, I’m making the effort to modify my own behavior.  And beginning to contemplate the lesser “friendships” that I maintain.  Are they real? Are they something I want to put effort into?

Re-reading it makes it sound harsh.  I really do enjoy many of the people that I interact with on a daily basis.  And there are parts of people that I really like, and sometimes I have to turn a blind eye to the parts that I really don’t like (and let’s not even talk politics, or religion, or finances).

At some point, I’m going to have to really figure out what I want…. but that’s an entirely different post/musing.